Prediction: Mastodon will likely outlast Twitter.

Historically, decentralized, open-source platforms and protocols with any adoption run forever, even if they rarely reach the popularity or cultural relevance of centralized platforms.

It seems likely to me that when Twitter eventually shuts down, people will still be running Mastodon instances.

Did you know Diaspora has 328 active nodes and 17k users? Hell, there are 3,652 active FidoNet nodes, and that started in 1984!

So... am I wrong?


TO BE CLEAR, I'm not saying that Mastodon will have any impact on Twitter whatsoever.

The idea of a social network "beating" another social network is ridiculous.

@andybaio Hmm, I don't know about that last sentence. MySpace? Friendster? Diaspora? Ning?

@clee Myspace, Friendster, and Ning were all centralized and dead. Diaspora is decentralized and still around.

@andybaio I haven't heard anything about Diaspora in years, so that's surprising to me, but good on them! I guess my point is, centralized social networks can certainly die.

@clee Right, that's exactly what I'm saying. Centralized social networks all die eventually, and decentralized networks rarely do.

@andybaio I'm agreeing with you very hard right now.

@andybaio diaspora is also full of dirty commies so it's a lost cause anyway

@andybaio but we've seen that happen with IG stories and Snapchat. Though still early days with Twitter/Mastodon.

@andybaio Twitter has its place but I don't consider it to be very "social."

@andybaio Probably right, given Twitter's constraints on evolution. Facebook is more likely to respond and innovate.

@andybaio I'm confused. You're saying that social media are not masked Mexican wrestlers?

That explains why that Santo guy is so confused when I tell him about my lunch and show him pictures of cheese.

@andybaio I'm not sure it's "ridiculous" since it's clearly happened in meaningful ways several times, buuuut "beating another" doesn't have to be the only mode of success :)

@andybaio It's not that Mastodon will cause Twitter's demise, but Mastodon may survive if Twitter implodes.

@andybaio But we can't write a story without someone being a WINNAR!

@andybaio My new analogy is a bit like ~ What if Tumblr and Twitter had a baby. The fact that it looks like "TweetDeck" is pretty hilarious to me though. It's a bit like the experience of IM in a video game meets interactive tagging.

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